内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测     

王倩  张少文  赵翠君  程玉琴 《内蒙古气象》2009,(6):10-13

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区（指赤峰市和通辽市）夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明：⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。  相似文献   

Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Chinwe Ifejika Speranza  Boniface Kiteme  Urs Wiesmann 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(1):220-233

Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961–2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.  相似文献   

2010年凌云县干旱灾害成因分析及抗旱措施     

黄桂珍  韦庆华 《气象研究与应用》2010,31(3)

从气候、地形等方面分析了凌云县2009年秋至2010年干旱灾害的成因,并提出了相应的抗旱措施,尽可能减少干旱灾害造成的损失。  相似文献   

西藏前冬环流及地温特征与夏季旱涝关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

普布卓玛  唐叔乙  卓嘎 《高原气象》2008,27(6)

选取西藏地区各区域内严重干旱年和严重洪涝年各5年,分析了北半球500hPa高度距平场同期和前冬环流,同时对旱涝年前冬地温距平与当年夏季旱涝的关系也进行了相关分析。结果表明,干旱年和洪涝年前冬（12月～2月）环流距平分布状况和地温距平有明显差异,这些不同特征是预测西藏夏季旱涝的信号和重要因子。夏季伊朗高压位置偏北或偏南,西太平洋高压脊线和西脊点位置都有一定的指示意义。同时,也可根据2月500hPa高度场正、负距平区位置特点,预测了西藏主要农业区沿雅鲁藏布江一线雨季偏迟或偏早。  相似文献   

江苏夏季旱涝环流演变特征分析   总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2  

陶玫  吕军  于波 《气象科学》2008,28(1):85-89

利用NCEP/NCAR OLR月资料和北半球500 hPa逐月高度场距平格点资料,讨论江苏夏季旱涝天气气候的环流特征.研究表明:菲律宾以西太平洋暖池区OLR低值区值强弱直接影响江苏夏季降水,OLR值越低,该区辐合越强,则其北部副热带高压偏强,有利于副高的北抬和西伸,使副高北侧的雨带偏东偏北,江苏易偏旱;反之江苏易偏涝.500 hPa在东亚地区南北呈" 、-、 "的纬向分布,中高纬度乌拉尔山和鄂霍茨克海地区夏季500 hPa高度距平场为明显的正距平区,在该地区形成双阻或单阻有利于形势的稳定,使降水持续,江苏夏季降水偏多.  相似文献   

Assessment of global meteorological,hydrological and agricultural drought under future warming based on CMIP6          下载免费PDF全文

Jianxin Zeng  Jiaxian Li  Xingjie Lu  Zhongwang Wei  Wei Shangguan  Shupeng Zhang  Yongjiu Dai  Shulei Zhang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(1):49-55

在全球变暖背景下,分析和预测干旱的变化趋势和传播规律对于区域生态环境安全和灾害管理具有重要意义.本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),分析了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种变暖情景下的气象(标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸发指数SPED,水文(标准化径流指数SRI)和农业(标准化土壤水分指数SSI)...  相似文献   

Monitoring the Spatio-temporal Process of Severe Droughts in the Pearl River Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qiang Huang  Zishen Chen  Changyuan Tang  Shaofeng Li 《地球科学进展》2019,34(10):1050-1059

  相似文献   

Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

Fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. Previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. We explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). Compared to the historical period (2006–2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in GDP per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. We found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. Fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. Our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. Incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans.  相似文献   

干旱灾害和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题   总被引：72，自引：4，他引：72  

钱正安  吴统文  宋敏红  马晓波  蔡英  梁潇云 《地球科学进展》2001,16(1):28-38

首先阐述了自然灾害中干旱灾害的严重性和复杂性；接着从西北干旱气候的时空分布特征、形成原因、干旱气候的比较以及监测和预测等方面回顾了近20年来我国西北干旱气候研究的进展；最后提出了西北干旱气候待研究的问题。  相似文献   

基于MCI指数的福建省干旱气候特征     

庄瑶  鲍瑞娟  张容焱  何金海  汪澜 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(5):93-99

采用目前国家干旱监测业务实行的MCI指数,利用Morlet小波、经验正交函数（EOF）等方法,分析了福建省1961—2019年全省66个气象站MCI指数表征的干湿状况和干旱变化特征。结果表明：福建省存在明显的干湿气候特征,具有显著的6—8 a和22 a的周期振荡,内陆山区干湿变化周期比沿海长,在季节尺度上各季均存在多时间尺度和地域差异化的特点;其空间变化具有3种典型模态,反映了季风降水多寡和地形差异。MCI表征的干旱过程时空分布与历史干旱事件相吻合,秋季和冬季是福建省干旱发生频率最高的季节,春季和夏季是干旱强度最强的季节;闽江口以南沿海地区干旱发生率明显高于内陆地区,全省出现同步干旱的机率较小（12%）。  相似文献